Archive for July, 2008

AUD/JPY WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The monthly chart shows a 4 month uptrend in place, with a triple top formation at 107.83. Price is trading above the 76 fib. All 4 moms are above 100.

The weekly chart shows a breach of the previous swing high at the 103.66 area. All 4 moms are above 100. We are looking to buy a retrace around the previous swing high at 100.56 area. Price is trading above the white 5 sma high.

The daily chart shows a close above the previous swing high and the white 5 sma high. We will look for a retrace to the 5 sma high or the 5 sma or the 76 fib for a buying opportunity if support there holds.

The 4 hour chart shows a very nice inverted head and shoulder pattern. Notice how she broke out on the blue june 17th 1600 GMT candle. She immediately retraced, and retested the 5 sma low before resuming. This is a very repeatable pattern. Nearly all breakouts retrace and retest the breakout area before resuming trend. We bought this pair at the white 5 sma low, and took profits to close out for the weekend. Nice trade. Easy money.

We will look to buy again at a good price.

 

AUD/USD WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The monthly chart for aud/usd shows 3 waves up on a multi-year trend. We see a new high was established this past week.

We took profits when we saw a rejection after making the new high. We will look to buy again at a better price. At some point, similar to the eur/usd, we will see a wave 4 correction down, so we will look to sell a double top formation should price retest the all time high again. The current monthly is not yet complete, but shows a spinning top for now. Last month’s candle shows a possible weakening of the uptrend, also.

 Weekly chart shows a breakout of the wedge formation. We expect a retest of this area.

The daily chart shows 3 bearish candles in a row, and a retest of the white 5 sma low, which held as support last Friday, but was breached on the previous candle. she is giving us a clue as to where she wants go. We see that breach of the 5 sma low then a retrace to the 5 sma, before resuming down. Downside target is the previous swing high at .9663, where we have a buy order sitting.

NZD/JPY WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The monthly chart for nzd/jpy looks more interesting this week. We see price is now sitting above the monthly 5 sma, after rejection from the white monthly 5 sma low. We have been standing aside on this pair, but we might look to trade it after we see the new weekly candle and momentum indicators on the monday Asian session.

 

You can see on the weekly chart a lot of sideways movement, which is why we have been standing aside on this pair. price is ranging inside the 5 sma channel as well as the 50 fib and the 61 fib.

The daily chart shows that price has breached the white 5 sma high, which makes it interesting now. Upside target is the 23 fib and a double top formation at the previous swing high of 81.64, however it has made a lower high this past week. The white descending trendline at 82.08 is a possible upside target if the double top formation is breached.

The 4 hour chart shows a breakout of the wedge formation. Price broke above the white descending trendline and retraced to retest it. This is a repeatable pattern for any currency pair. When you see a breakout, expect a retest of that breakout area, before resuming trend.

 

GBP/CHF WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

 Gbp/chf 4 hour chart shows a possible attempt to touch the white descending trendline at 2.0474 or a double top formation at 2.0480 area. We took profits on our long position from the red 200 sma around 2.0346 area, where we bought when we saw the move down was rejected, and price broke above that 200 sma.

The daily chart shows the white descending trendline as the upside target. We took profits when we saw a lower high, and chose to close out for the weekend.

EUR/JPY WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The weekly chart for eur/jpy shows another all time high that was reached this past week. We took a nice profit from our long position that was entered after the rejection of the 23 fib.

USD/JPY WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The daily chart for usd/jpy shows buying interest was found just below the 104 area as I had posted in my last article. She breached 107 before retracing.

monthly chart is looking bullish, with 4 months of bullish candles. The 38 fib has been breached, and she will target the 50 fib (111.05), if she breaks the previous swing low at 108.97. The last 2 attempts at that swing low got sold aggressively. The 3rd attempt may break her.

GBP/USD WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

 The weekly chart for gbp/usd shows Price breaching the brown 55 sma and then retracing back to close below it. The white descending trendline at 2.0250 area is a possible upside target. The 5 sma open/close is crossed up which is bullish short term. Cluster support is provided by multiple sma’s.

All 4 moms are bullish.

I need to see the new weekly candle before i know more, but she is making lower highs for now.

 

 

EUR/USD WEEKLY REPORT

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The monthly chart for eur/usd shows a new high at 1.6035. Our sell order was activated at 1.6020 from the double top formation that was mentioned in our last article. We took profits at +200 pips.

A corrective wave 4 down is due at some point. This monthly chart shows 3 waves up from october 2000. Wave 1 was over 5,400 pips from .8225 to 1.3663, ending in december of 2004. Wave 2 down was good for about a year and 2,000 pips from 1.3663 to 1.1640 in November of 2005. Wave 3 up from 1.1640 to 1.6035 has taken over 2 years from November 2005 to the present. Wave 4 down will most likely equal wave 2 with at least 2,000 pips when it occurs. Our strategy is to sell rallies when we see rejections of the current uptrend, such as we saw wednesday and thursday of this past week. We are also buying at support for a continuation of the uptrend to possibly 1.6300 or 1.6500.

Here is a very nice chart sent to me from one of my students, George Maneddi…

His chart identifies 5 very nice buying opportunities on the higher lows, during this multiyear uptrend from August of 2007.

My weekly chart shows consolidation is still in effect, with 2 breaches to the upside, which were sold aggressively. The 5 sma open/close is crossed up which is bullish. The weekly candle closed as a spinning top which is indecision. Notice the candles back in March of 2008. You can see the large wicks and closes below this red horizontal trendline. There is a lot of selling interest near the top of the consolidation range.

USD/JPY WEEKLY FOREX REPORT

Sunday, July 13th, 2008

Monthly chart for usd/jpy shows a 4 month uptrend from the short term low at 95.73 in March. The current monthly candle is not convincing at this stage. The previous monthly candle was also not convincing. Price is testing the white monthly 5 sma high, and the 38% fib. She has breached the 38% fib twice and retraced. She made a lower high this month, so far. The yellow and orange-red 5 sma open/close has crossed up. This is bullish. Momentum indicators are mixed, reflecting consolidation and range trade.

 Price is resolving the 5 sma channel on the weekly chart. Moms are bearish. Price was rejected at the red trendline previous swing high/low. She must find wherever the support (buying interest) is found before she can push up further to retection area at 108.60 area, and could possibly retrace down to the white 5 sma low at 105.67, or the green 22 sma at 104.05.

Daily chart moms are turning bullish short term but mixed overall. Bullish current candle respected the red 200 sma and the white 5 sma low, and the 38% fib. Upside target is the 5 sma at the 106.83/107.00 area.

GBP/USD WEEKLY FOREX REPORT

Sunday, July 13th, 2008

The monthly momentum indicators are not bullish, but rather flat and sloping with a slight bearish attitude. Current monthly candle is looking rather doji’ish. The confluence of the 5 sma and green 22 sma are providing some resistance for now. The white 5 sma low has been touched and retraced. We see 3 previous breaches to the downside, giving us subtle clues as to where she wants to go. Those red horizontal lines are previous swing highs and lows that she is repecting for now. The white 50% fib is the downside target at the 1.9080 area. We are looking to buy her there to catch a bounce, because we expect some buying interest to appear there. We are looking to sell her around the 23% fib at 2.0210 area, if we see rejection there.

The weekly chart shows price respecting the brown 55 sma at the 2.0040 area. A break of the 55 sma will test the white desending trendline at the 2.0260 area. The red trendline is a previous swing high from March at 2.0396/2.0400 area. Momentum indicators are looking to turn bullish, short term.

Daily chart shows a breakout of the red 200 sma on the preious candle (Friday), then some profit taking retraced it back down to the white 5 sma high, or possibly a retest of that red 200 sma, before resuming the weekly uptrend. Daily moms are bearish for now. It is early Asian session, before the Tokyo open, so we will see a new candle then.

The 4 hour chart shows a continuation up pattern short term.